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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”